Tracking Tea Trends with 2020 Foresight

January 7, 2020 No Comments Data Dan Bolton

Taxing tea was disruptive. Ample warning and centuries of goodwill lessened the impact, but deeply entrenched trade relationships remain unsettled in 2020.

Constraints on free trade continue to threaten the global industry.

In September, after months of escalation, the United States imposed a 15% tariff that swept Chinese tea and coffee into a trade war viewed as repugnant by tea enthusiasts and professionals. Late in the year negotiators agreed to reduce duties by half. The U.S. Trade Representative’s 86-page Phase One agreement between the U.S. and China is expected to be signed in January. Lower duties will be effective sometime in February.

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Tea import volumes were down 1% through October. Import values for all tea imported to the U.S. rose 2% during the year suggesting a continued trend toward premium quality tea along with more value-addition at origin. Charts showing full year results for the past five years depict a plateau typical of mature markets where consumption is closely tied to population growth. The most significant change in the year ahead will result from shifts in supply which is overabundant, exceeding demand.

Peter F. Goggi, president of the Tea Association of the USA wrote, “international trade is becoming much more of a challenge to the entire supply chain.”

The industry must work together to address several issues including tariffs, country of origin labeling and the lack of harmonization of tolerances for chemicals essential to cultivation of tea. “Economic growth and stability cannot be achieved long term without free trade,” wrote Goggi.

China, which had invested heavily in Fair Trade and third-party certifications to become the U.S.’s top tea trading partner, saw an overall decline of 9.1% in green tea imports to 6.5 million kilograms during the first 10 months of 2019. Black tea imports, totaling 7.2 million kilograms, fell 0.7% through October. The total value of black and green teas was down 17% to $62 million compared to sales during the same period last year. Chinese green tea exports dominate the the market with black teas ascendant. China accounts for 44% of U.S. green tea imports. While China retaliated with increased tariffs on U.S. goods including tea, the country reduced barriers to trade with the European Union and other partners. China felt no ill effect from U.S. tariffs on tea. In many instances teas that would have shipped direct to the U.S. were routed to Germany and Canada and blended prior to sale.

Shipments from China accelerated in the spring months as tariffs loomed and wholesalers scrambled to find non-Chinese sources.

Sri Lanka, India and Africa each benefited from disruptions. Imports from Sri Lanka increased 24% to 5.5 million kilograms during the first 10 months of the year. Imports of organic green tea in bags were up 88% by value compared to the first 10 months of 2018. Tea imports from Sri Lanka were valued at $39 million through October, up 14% compared to the same period during the previous year, according to the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service. Green tea imported from Africa increased 68% to 10 million kilograms during the first 10 months of the year. African black tea imports rose 7% by volume.

Like a stream coursing over jagged rocks, tea made its way.

Track these 10 tea trends in 2020.

  • Ready to drink and refrigerated teas are synonymous with convenience. RTD is by far the largest segment in tea earning more than $10 billion and accounting for almost 50% market share with $4 billion in sales in mass market and convenience outlets. Sales of canned and bottled teas were down 1.3% for the year, according to Chicago-based market research firm IRI. Natural and healthful teas, such as Teavana (sales up 15.1%), Bai tea (up 44.4%), Guayaki Yerba Mate (up 18.7%) and Pure Leaf (up 7.1%) signal a trend to lower calories and plant-based ingredients. Sales of bottled water surpassed carbonated soda in 2019 with seltzer and sparkling waters up 15% in the past year, according to IRI but the biggest winners in the category are iced coffee and cappuccino, up 6.4% to $2.87 billion and cold brew coffee, up 18.1% with sales of $436 million.
  • Botanicals that promise specific health benefits are outselling many traditional camellia sinensis-based teas. Functional and condition-specific blends are popular with young tea drinkers. Every major brand has introduced line extensions, altering their identity. Rishi, for example, is now Rishi Tea & Botanicals. Maria Uspenski, founder of The Tea Spot, predicts adaptogenic teas that offer overall wellness benefits will do well in 2020.
  • The amount Americans spent eating out at restaurants exceeded money spent at grocers for the first time in 2019, according to the . Restaurant spending is up 4% with delivery and digital ordering accelerating beverage sales at coffee shops.
  • Foot traffic continues to decline. Coresight Research estimated 9,300 retail store closings in 2019. As a result, successful marketing and merchandising at conventional brick and mortar tea retail ventures demands omni-channel offerings and experiential options. Mall locations face increasing headwinds. Credit Suisse estimates 20% to 25% of U.S. malls will be shuttered by 2022.
  • Those who smirk at bubble tea should visit the 1.6 million member Facebook group “” and then review financials at homegrown chains like and Kung Fu Tea as well as Gong Cha and , a Taiwan chain with new stores in Brooklyn and Los Angeles, Toronto and Vancouver.
  • Matcha is the star of green tea growth. Green tea now accounts for 15% of U.S. consumption and skews much higher among Americans with Asian heritage. Global Industry Analysts (GIS) the green tea market will grow $8.1 billion globally by 2025 and that the U.S. will maintain a 4.9% growth rate during the next five years. Green tea imports from Japan are up 102.1% during the past five years, the biggest gain of any U.S. tea trading partner, according to Worlds Top Exports. Volume during the first ten months of 2019 totaled 9.8% of green tea imports and approached $10 million annually largely due to the popularity of matcha.
  • Kombucha is morphing into complimentary product lines. The Global Hard Kombucha Industry Research Report estimates the market for hard (alcoholic) kombucha to expand from $55.45 million in 2018 to $1.12 billion million in 2026 due to a combined annual growth rate of 42% through 2026. Category sales are approaching $500 million in mass market.
  • Origin continues to shudder under the weight of increased labor costs. Oversupply has depressed tea prices globally weakening the bottom lines at multinationals and smallholders alike. The Tea Association of India reports that only 20% of tea estates earned a profit in 2019.
  • Transparent supply chains are now the rule with every major chain accepting a consumer mandate to reveal specifics about the environmental condition of gardens, labor standards, certifications, mid-supply chain logistics and more. Staling is an issue as suppliers like Vahdam Tea and Teabox shine a light on the fact that many teas are stored for many months before sale.
  • Weather extremes. The blood red skies over Australia due to forest ash of summer follow an unusually cold winter the Southern Hemisphere. Yields at the Nerada tea estate in North Queensland were cut by half due to drought.

RTD Tea

RTD Tea has outperformed every other tea segment during the past ten years, increasing 485 million gallons in volume and growing at a compound annual rate of 3.4%, to Gary Hemphill, managing director of research at Beverage Marketing Corp. (BMC)

Hemphill reports that RTD Tea now accounts for a 47.3% share of the tea market, surpassing teabags at 42.9%. Loose leaf accounts for 0.7% of total sales, trailing tea in single-serve capsules at 0.9%. Iced tea mixes claim the remaining 8.2% of the tea market, according to BMC’s  database.

“The large traditional beverage categories have been trending downward,” he said, noting the share of tea by volume (less RTD) fell 2.5% in 2018 and is down another 3.6% during the first of 2019.

Arizona and Lipton continue to dominate the ready-to-drink tea category, but sales of traditional sweetened bottle teas are in decline. Pure Leaf was the top U.S. brand with $768 million in sales, growing 3.7% last year. Arizona, with 16% market share, earned $361 million in sales but growth was flat, according to IRI. Lipton, Lipton Pure Leaf, Lipton Brisk and Lipton Diet hold the largest combined share (44%) with total sales of $1.6 billion. Coca-Cola’s Gold Peak is No. 3 earning $412 million and growing 2.5% in 2019, while sales of sister brand Honest Tea declined 15%, according to IRI.

Starbucks earned $770 million on sales of bottled tea and coffee producing five of the top 10 best selling brands. Look for Coca-Cola owned Costa Coffee to challenge that dominance along with brand extensions like Honest Coffee.

Refrigerated teas are doing extremely well with specialty brands like Argo Tea occupying a premium slot. GT’s Living Foods kombucha brands earned $257 million, according to IRI. Sales of Kevita refrigerated teas in mass market and convenience were $72 million, up 16%; Health Ade tea sales were $44 million and its kombucha earned $15 million last year while Humm and Brew Dr Kombucha earned about $20 million each.

Botanicals

Plant-based foods and beverages are trending and while tea fits the profile, botanicals are now the focus of global food and pharmaceutical companies such as Tyson Foods, Nestle, Bayer AG and Bio-Botanica and Martin Bauer Group. Beverage Marketing Corp. reports that functional and wellness beverages account for more than 50% of the non-alcoholic beverage market in the U.S.

The trend favoring plant-based beverages is global with ingredients like fruity-floral hibiscus attracting a global following.

Tea companies deeply invested in botanicals in the U.S. include Yogi Tea, Traditional Medicinals and Hain Celestial, all of which introduced new products in the past two years alongside traditional tea companies Bigelow Tea and Harney & Sons. Newcomers to watch include , a blend of 20 Ecuadoran known as healing water.

Maria Uspenski, founder of the Tea Spot in Boulder, Colo., wrote, “unless you’re a big herbal tea consumer, you may not have heard of Tulsi, Ashwaganda, Rhodiola and Maca.”

“What all these herbs and Turmeric have in common is that they are in a class of plants called adaptogens, first classified in the mid-20th century by a Soviet scientist researching ways to minimize the stress response in active combat aviators,” Uspenski explained.

“Along with green tea and CBD (cannabidiol) which are also adaptogens, they are helping to take functional teas to a new level, one which fits our lifestyles right now,” said Uspenski. “Adaptogens help manage both stress and hormone balance. The balancing response of “adaptogens” is non-specific – that is to say, they help bring the body back to center, regardless of which direction the source of the stressor came from,” she said.
line and hemp-infused teas are marketed as adaptogenic.

Consider ingredients that enhance flavor and function, advises magazine: “There are many types of herbs, flowers, and spices being incorporated into beverages,” said Holly McHugh, marketing associate at Niles, Ill.-based Imbibe. “Herbs like mint and basil, floral ingredients like lavender and rose, and spices like turmeric and ginger are being used in beverages. These ingredients are used because of their inherent health benefits and to add subtle nuance to traditional flavor profiles like true-to-fruit.”

Monitor energy drinks containing caffeinated herbs like Yerba Mate and Guayusa as they attract recreational users concerned with caffeine intake. Energy drinks are a subcategory growing at 9.3% per year, according to market research firm .

refers to breeding crops to multiply their nutritional value. Nutrient density is increasing through selective breeding for components such as Vitamin E or beta-carotene. The emphasis is on delivering micronutrients deficient in staple foods. Sales are expected to reach $130 million by 2025.

Clinical and weight management drinks are another subcategory to watch. Boalthouse Farms “Perfectly Protein Heart Healthy” refrigerated tea grew by 16% to $15 million in mass market and convenience, according to IRI. Category sales are estimated at $17.7 billion by 2025, according to Fior. Whey-based beverages currently account for 28% share of the protein-based drinks divided into milk, casein, soy, egg and rice. Bland in flavor but easily digested, these RTDs offers unique functionality based on its high nutritional value. Growth rates exceed 7% per year. North American sales were $3.9 billion in 2017.

Tea Retail

Market researcher Adam Rowe 1,607 specialty tea businesses in the U.S. of which 255 are chain outlets with five or more locations.

The total U.S. specialty retail market grosses between $690 million and $1.2 billion annually, according to a nationwide survey of tearoom owners and managers by Sinensis Research. The survey was conducted online with data from 400 respondents and 70 randomized follow up phone interviews, according to Rowe who launched in 2019 to monitor the industry.

A single store selling a variety of tea earns $220,000 to $270,000 annually with average online sales of $40,000 to $65,000, according to Rowe. Specialty vendors exclusively selling Chinese tea earn a bit more online, up to $70,000. These general tea outlets account for 55% of total locations. Afternoon tea venues account for 34% of the total and Chinese tea shops represent 7.3%. Japanese tea shops represent 1.2% of the total.

The number of people drinking specialty tea is just a fraction of total U.S. tea drinkers, according to Rowe. “Of the $708 million of tea imported in 2018, only around $12.84 million would go on to be sold as loose tea,” he said. This figure does not include imported herbal teas.

Retail Sales by Vendor Type

Source: Sinensis Research, Washington, DC

In 2019 the biggest winners in foodservice were fast and convenient. Tea does well in this segment as a healthy alternative to soda but casual and fine-dining restaurants have yet to fully appreciate tea. Freshly brewed iced teas is one example of how a simple upgrade improves lunch fare but restaurants that brew fine quality loose leaf to accompany an elegant dessert, and behind-the-bar specialty drinks that feature tea are far too rare.

Foot traffic at traditional restaurants is in decline, according to researchers at TDn2K. The culprit is over expansion which led to only 0.2% growth in comparable store sales during the second quarter of 2019 as foot traffic declined 2.9%, writes TDn2K. Comparable sales (comps) measures the average number of purchases and amount spent per location. These numbers are the primary driver of profitability per location.

“Average comps are (barely) positive because of menu price increases, but foot traffic declines are bad news for incumbents, which are losing sales to those chains still expanding aggressively. With profits slim and getting slimmer, many chains are in a precarious spot after losing customers for so long,” according to the article “.”

Starbucks increased sales by $1.97 billion at its 14,606 locations, an 8.3% increase that includes a strong showing in tea. Comps grew 7% at existing stores. Other winners include Chick-fil-A and Domino’s Pizza.

Foot Traffic in Decline

Record holiday sales in 2019 reversed an ominous trend observed in December 2018 when consumers panicked, and sales declined to levels last seen in 2009.

This year’s holiday sales, excluding autos, climbed 3.4% despite six fewer shopping days. Note however that it was online sales that stole the limelight, increasing 18.8% compared to 2018. E-commerce now accounts for 14.6% of total retail sales. Foot traffic continued to decline. Sales at department stores fell 1.8% (while online sales grew 6.9%), according to report which tracks sales from Nov. 1 through Christmas Eve.

One of the more interesting studies in the past year involves foot traffic at so called “experiential malls” locations that offer entertainment, host community events and encourage retailers to attract customers with attention-getting marketing. Data analysts at Thasos found that brands including Apple, the Italian food hall Eataly and boutique auto dealerships operated by Tesla are not drawing extra traffic. Thasos notes that foot traffic at enclosed malls anchored by department stores at the best shopping centers in the U.S. peaked around August 2018, slipped as the holidays approached, surged briefly and are declining again. Thasos monitors 100 million mobile phones (with permission) to measure how frequently shoppers visit malls. The surge was in response to promotions observes John Collins, Thasos co-founder and chief product officer. He told that “if you’re selling merchandise at a loss, you can only do that for so long.”

At mid-year real estate tracker Coresight reported U.S. retailers had shut 5,994 stores, while opening 2,641 but Deborah Weinswig, founder and CEO of Coresight revised that to 9,000.

 “The slowdown we saw in 2018 seems to have been a brief respite in what’s a steady, long-term trend,” she told CNBC.

Bubble Tea

Premiumization is a powerful marketing tool. A few years ago when World Tea News first the Boba Guys in San Francisco they explained tapioca pearls were not a gimmick, but a way of enhancing the experience and flavor of locally sourced ingredients. Andrew Chau and partner Bin Chen have since set the standard for domestic retailers. Imitation is flattery and the flood of better-tasting, not-that-bad-for-you boba chains has surged. , an icon in Taiwan where brown sugar striped take-away cups get noticed, opened shops in Los Angeles and New York, the latest in a long queue of competitors that include Chatime, , , CoCo Fresh and .

The segment appears to be crowded but at the store level return business and the novelty of boba drive sales. Orbis Market Reports bubble tea globally will reach $8.5 billion by 2024 from $5.4 billion in 2019. Growth, compounded annually is projected at 7.9%.

In addition to San Francisco’s three stores, the now have locations in Palo Alto, San Ramon, San Carlos, and Long Beach, Los Angeles and Culver City as well as three stores in New York City.

Matcha
No one was really surprised when health guru Dr. Andrew Weil he is so excited by matcha that he launched a brand with Andre Fasciola. Weil first discovered matcha while traveling in Japan in 1959. Teas, sourced in Uji City near Kyoto, Japan, start at $37 per tin with ceremonial grades selling for more than $60 for 30 grams.

Matcha is the darling of the green tea trend. It is versatile, profitable and increasingly popular as Americans find ways to conceal its grassy reputation. Matcha lattes are popular, shortbread baked with a few pinches of matcha benefits from its color, subtle flavor and as a health enhancer. AIYA makes matcha sticks to-go and global RTD brand Ito En bottles several matcha and other green tea varieties made with premium tea leaves.

Globally the market is estimated from $1.4 to $1.63 billion. Japan and China currently drink about $800 million annually. Zion Market Research sales of $4.83 billion by 2024 globally with annual compound growth of 9.25%.

Researches continue to find specific benefit associated with matcha including studies showing matcha anxiety in mice and that it .

Kombucha

Sales of Kombucha in mass market outlets exceeded $500 million in 2019. It is a global success with 350 manufacturers world wide, but the U.S. remains the seat of innovation. GT Dave, the founder of market leader GT’s Living Foods (which includes kefir, coconut yogurt) is a billionaire at 41 who bottles one million gallons of Kombucha per year at a new 260,000 sq. ft. factory in Los Angeles. Profiled in he describes how his parents mixed yeast and bacteria to make the tea at home. He was 13 when he took his first sip telling the magazine: “I thought it smelled weird. I thought it tasted weird. I thought it looked weird.”

Enthusiasts largely agree with that description, but Kombucha is that rare medicinal that can be blended with nearly every fruit and some spices. While relegated to natural and health food stores since the 1990s, GT Dave persisted in convincing Walmart and Costco and Kroger it was ready for the mass market. PepsiCo responded to the opportunity by buying rival Kevita for $260 million. The category has since exploded and may soon evolve into an alcoholic category called Hard Kombucha.

Supply is Out of Sync

Tea Association of the USA president Peter Goggi, is concerned that supply continues to outstrip demand. “History has proven that if tea prices rise, the producers will manufacture more tea to take advantage of the higher prices. Producers, by skipping pruning cycles or plucking a little further down on the bush have an almost immediate ability to turn on a volume tap of 20% more tea. The result of more availability and poorer quality: lower prices. Escaping the clutches of this boom/bust cycle will be one of the keys to the long-term survival of the business. There are only two solutions: improve consumption or reduce production,” wrote Goggi.

To enhance quality (and discourage the use of pruned leaves) India has for the second year ordered factories closed through February. Yields remain high and the respite enables dormant trees to produce a better spring flush. Other producing regions should follow their lead.

Transparency

Bowing to consumer demand stirred by the activists at in the UK, executives at Typhoo, Twinings, Yorkshire Tea, Tata (Tetley) and Clipper Teas in 2018 began revealing the gardens and cooperatives that supply their tea. In 2019 Unilever, which had resisted the practice, published a list of gardens that spans 21 countries . Publishing supplier lists has since become a point of pride with many websites sharing details about terroir and the professional skills that contribute to quality and flavor. After three centuries zealously guarding the identity of suppliers, pledges to treat workers fairly and Unilever’s to strictly avoid forced labor practices that amount to modern slavery, may soon become the norm for U.S.-based suppliers as well.

“Transparency has been a buzz word in the tea industry for some time now. 2020 is the year for us to figure out exactly what that means,” wrote Nicole Wilson, a tea writer and consultant. “Consumers are more knowledgeable than ever. They look for detailed information about where their tea comes from and how it was produced before making a purchase. Social media allows customers to connect directly to producers. Retailers will need to put their cards on the table to remain competitive. Transparently and ethically sourced specialty tea is the way forward,” she wrote.

Weather Extremes

“Weather patterns are changing faster than forecasters anticipated,” observes Jhanne Jasmine, R&D Specialist & Tea Program Educator at Stash Tea Company. “Annual super storms will continue to disrupt tea production and impact product availability, quality and pricing. As a result of these volatilities, it’s important that companies continue expanding their resource options for teas, spices and botanicals to avoid disruptions in production at their own facilities,” she advised.

Adding to this, we’ll continue to experience global political instability which may cause additional price fluctuations of many raw materials. These factors may create some additional challenges for smaller retail tea shops, which are already struggling with rising expenses. With an increase in these consequential price uncertainties, companies would be wise to build a financial buffer in to their 2020 business plan to offset unreliable cost of goods forecasts, she advised.

It’s certainly been a tough year in Australian agriculture – a sunburnt country where rains suddenly halted an extended drought in Queensland “only to create a new set of disasters in the process as the barren earth disappeared under an inland sea,” wrote Nerada tea estate director Toby Poyner. At the onset of winter, a killing frost stripped the trees of leaves. Losses totaled $1 million last year.

Australia’s national science agency released a  of the nation’s 8,000 kilometer coast documenting the effects of human-induced climate change. “Extreme climate events such a heatwaves, floods and drought damaged 45% of the marine ecosystems along Australia’s coast in a seven-year period,” according to researchers at .

“The cyclone season is an additional challenge for farmers in our home state. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Owen broke records when it dumped more than 700 millimeters of rain in 24 hours in some parts of Far North Queensland just a week before Christmas 2018,” according Poyner who pledged to stand by our employees, many of whom have been with us for decades, so that we remain a viable part of the local economy.”

Extreme weather takes a terrible toll on tea trees. Photo by Adobe Stock

The Last Gasp

Assam rarely experiences big swings in temperature. During the harvest 87.8 degrees Fahrenheit (31 Celsius) is normal.

In June 2013 temperatures unexpectedly climbed to 101.3 degrees Fahrenheit (38.5 Celsius), the highest in 33 years. The following April the temperature reached all-time high of 104.18 F (40.1 C).

In the gardens millions of tea trees took notice. They flex a bit, relaxing as the efficiency of their internal hydraulics improved. Picture the juices flowing as leaf factories begin manufacturing at full tilt. New foliage appears in abundance in a few days. Coarse under leaves that sustain the tree get a rare chance to sunbathe. Dr. Henry Adams at Oklahoma State University 99% of the water moving through a tree is used to keep open the plant’s stomata (pores that enable the plant to breathe).

Tea trees need more water when it is hot. After a few days of record temperatures, without rain, the previously energetic leaves began to wilt and eventually curl. Budding stops. Trees react to drought by closing the pores that let in carbon dioxide, said Adams. The tree soon begins to experience carbon starvation. Stored sugars and starches keep the tree alive but sensing danger, a few leaves are cast off, lessening demand for water. Drought brings-to-mind brittle twigs and frail, dried leaves but sudden death is a matter of hydraulics and the ability to inhale. If the tree loses too much water too quickly, an air bubble (embolism) will form. When that occurs in the lower trunk the tree cannot transport water from the roots to the leaves, which often proves fatal.

In gardens were precipitation (or irrigation) cannot meet the tree’s demand for water they die — not by ones and twos, but suddenly by the thousands.

Tree deaths increase 15 to 20% for every one degree Celsius increase. The number and density of trees stoke the competition for water with each tree fighting for the last drops.

Those that survive experience severe stress and show less resistance to pests. In time every tree perishes.

― Dan Bolton

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